Big oil fields in shocking decline
We pause now, in what has lately been a laundry list of fiscal and monetary folly, to bring you alarming news about energy.
Oh yeah, energy. That thing where we had a near-crisis earlier this year, but now we don't because we're experiencing deflation. (Note to irony-challenged inflationists: I'm being facetious.)
I'd been aware the International Energy Agency was doing an audit of all the world's major oil fields and its report was due soon. Now the Financial Times has gotten its hands on an advance copy. The numbers are freaking dire, although the FT puts its usual sober gloss on things.
Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.
Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook…
You read that right — 9.1%. And if we do get that "extra investment to raise production," the decline rate will still be 6.4%. "The watchdog warned that the world needed to make a 'significant increase in future investments just to maintain the current level of production'."
The IEA sees world consumption of 106.4 million barrels a day by 2030. How exactly we get there from the present 85 million barrels a day with a decline rate of 6.4% in existing fields is left unsaid. That's the sort of thing that only gets discussed behind closed doors.
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Where are those solar-powered cars when you need ‘em…
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 12:23 pm
I’m sure Obama will bring the right “change” to fix this!
hahahahahahahahahaha!
we’re freaking doomed!
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
Hey! Obama will change things ! Just you wait and see, just believe! We’ll have a “new era of hope, lifting us unto our greater aspirations and strengthening the bounds of community and appealing to all the best and most nobel that is within us !” I think that’s about what he said, don’t bother trying to figure out what it means. It came from the lips of a pol, so it probably means we are freaking doomed !
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
There is a lot of “freaking doomed” going around… Isn’t Obama supposed to save us from all that??? ROFL!
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 3:13 pm
I guess “change” can also include not having the lights on. It sure is a different view. And “strengthening the bonds of community” will be us and our neighbors hovering over the big soup pot being heated with burning tires.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 3:21 pm
And what will be in that thin soup ? You guessed it. Former pets and local wildlife. And all the bums sitting around you will be former CEOs of investment banks. It’s gonna be a great retirement !
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 3:44 pm
I’m starting to consider buying into oil. Can anyone here offer an expert opinion on the etf OIL vs going with an oil stock.
I really prefer the idea of getting into oil more directly as per the etf, but perhaps there are some downside risks associated with an etf that I’m not aware of resulting from say, the risk of the etf parent going bankrupt due to a crash in their portfolio from other issues.
I simply do not have the expertise in this area that I require before getting into an issue so if there are any experts on this matter that can help me begin to catch up - I’d appreciate your insgights.
Cordially,
- David
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 4:48 pm
Anyone at all surprised by the 9 % annual decline in production , please send $5 to the “There’s a Giant Unicorn on the Far Side of the Moon and he’s ready to come run the planet on a treadmill if we feed him Fruit Loops Institute”.
If a 9% production decline in the foundation of our technology and food production is fully revealed and Banks are going broke, one could assume that an entire host of problems related to our out-sized idiocy are about to be forced upon us like the barrel of a 45 clanking across our pate. This concentrates the mind a bit and so can be good but it certainly does make all this sweet talk of hope and change about as palatable as a beat up drunk pan handling you on South Van Ness.
I’d say the resolution of hitting bottom has certain efficacious attributes. It’s the falling and serial puking that gets old.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 4:56 pm
Better to go with an oil company like Apache (APA) or XTO that has proven in the ground reserves. These reserves will increase in value if the economy improves and demand resumes. But they will underperform if engines stop running and the wheat grows thin. Depends which future you think is coming.
The guy above better get used to the sarcastic comments about his favorite pol. In politics, nobody gets spared ! And when the become president, it’s open season on them.
We all believe when we vote, don’t we ?
But no matter who wins the electon we will come to hate them.
We will hate them for their arrogant belief in their own right to rule humanity.
We will hate them for their sanctomonious faith in their own self rightousness.
We will hate them for their unshakable confidence in their own flawed judgement.
We will hate them for their flowery but vacuous speeches.
We will hate them for the laws they inflict.
We will hate them for the lives they destroy.
We will in all these things show good sense.
We will come to see them clearly, in an unvarnished light, as they really are.
The king and his minions deserve our hatred, in this all is right with the world.
Then as fools, we will turn right around and believe in someone else.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 4:59 pm
My, my…and just a couple of days ago some of you were callinmg me paranoid!
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 5:18 pm
My, my…and just a couple of days ago some of you were calling me paranoid!
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 5:21 pm
We can’t build battery cars unless we somehow discover a whole lot more lead or nickel or cobalt than we have now. Vanadium might work for flow cells.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 10:54 pm
Bull Shit. The Russians have already planted their flag at the bottom of the sea at the north pole. They are going to reap the rewards (drilling rigs everywhere) when the ice melts, global warming or not. All of the oil on the planet will be found and used. It is a discrace that the USA has not begun sucking it out of the ground at Anwar. We have so much mineral weath that we are not allowed use because of idiots.
I’ve got an idea. Instead of drilling, building reactors, or jousting with windmills, lets send everyone a check.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 11:13 pm
Bull Shit. The Russians have already planted their flag at the bottom of the sea at the north pole. They are going to reap the rewards (drilling rigs everywhere) when the ice melts, global warming or not. All of the oil on the planet will be found and used. It is a discrace that the USA has not begun sucking it out of the ground at Anwar. We have so much mineral weath that we are not allowed use because of idiots.
I’ve got an idea. Instead of drilling, building reactors, or jousting with windmills, lets send everyone a check.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 11:13 pm
Bull Shit. The Russians have already planted their flag at the bottom of the sea at the north pole. They are going to reap the rewards (drilling rigs everywhere) when the ice melts, global warming or not. All of the oil on the planet will be found and used. It is a discrace that the USA has not begun sucking it out of the ground at Anwar. We have so much mineral weath that we are not allowed use because of idiots.
I’ve got an idea. Instead of drilling, building reactors, or jousting with windmills, lets send everyone a check.
Comment on October 29, 2008 @ 11:13 pm
Electric lights are powered by coal or nuclear. Leave them on all you want.
We aren’t short of energy, we are short of liquid fuels.
Comment on October 30, 2008 @ 10:18 pm