Keeping a pulse on $200 oil
As much as the Freddie and Fannie bailout might occupy our attention today, we can't overlook the story that could easily bring about $200 oil.
Over the weekend, the Times of London had a breathless piece about how Team Bush has given Israel the "amber light" for an attack on Iran, attributing this to a proverbial "senior Pentagon official" who said, "Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you’re ready."
“It’s really all down to the Israelis,” the Pentagon official added. “This administration will not attack Iran. This has already been decided. But the president is really preoccupied with the nuclear threat against Israel and I know he doesn’t believe that anything but force will deter Iran.”
It's tempting to dismiss this as another arm of the Murdochtopus stirring the pot — especially given how the reporter who wrote this story has a history of hype about the Israelis getting ready to attack Iran.
But then I check in with the regular Monday morning briefing at Swoop, and I think twice. The anonymous wonks and insiders there write in a scrupulously detached and non-partisan way, while still sticking their neck out with predictions. All this year they've been highly skeptical about whether Team Bush is really gung-ho to attack Iran. But…
US officials view potential Israeli action with deepening concern. The Administration’s and Congressional support for decisive US intervention to protect Israel is unambiguous. One National Security Council official commented: “Our exchanges with the Israelis make it clear that we do not favor military action. But we do not expect them to ask us for permission. They calculate that, if they go ahead, we will have no choice but to support them.”
Exactly. This won't be like Israel's 1981 attack on the Osirak reactor in Iraq, which went unanswered because Saddam Hussein was too busy fighting a war with Iran. Iran will fight back in one form or another and U.S. forces will be sucked in.
So how likely is all this now? It's trite, but true, that war serves as the ultimate distraction from economic problems or corruption scandals… and Israel's prime minister is caught up in a big scandal right now. One more factor to bear in mind.
Update: More here from Laura Rozen to reinforce the overall thesis. She quotes former Cheney aide David Wurmser as putting the chances of an Israeli attack at "slightly, slightly above 50-50." It was a little over a year ago that Wurmser, still in the White House, let it be known around Washington that Cheney was prodding the Israelis to do what Bush would not.
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Sounds like a reason to be long in one of the Oil ETF’s.
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 11:22 am
Zionism- the gift that keeps on giving.
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 12:32 pm
not a matter of “if” but of “when”
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
reminds me of ‘67, when israel went ahead and launched a simultaneous attack on three of its neigbours, and LBJ had no choice but to support them - even after they sunk one of our navy boats and killed hundreds of u.s. servicemen!
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 3:14 pm
If this happens, $200 oil will sound cheap…
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 7:23 pm
I say if the U.S. lets Israel suck us into a needless war with Iran that destroy’s our economy once and for all, it will be time for the apathetic couch-potatoes in this country to go political apeshit and overthrow our worthless, corupt ruling elite!
Comment on July 14, 2008 @ 8:24 pm
I told you so few months ago…
The comander in chief of US Army is not in the White House…is in Tell Aviv!
No wonder the israeli from the streets of Jerusalem are referring to USA as ” our colony from North America “…
Comment on July 15, 2008 @ 12:08 am
I say all this blustering talk is nonsense. Israel will have to accept a Nuclear Iran, and no way would they risk Shahab missiles raining down on Tel Aviv, unless they know that they don’t pose a threat, which they do(these aren’t scuds the duds). Iran isn’t Iraq of the 80’s or the Gulf War. They are much more sophisticated than that, and will be allowed to do as they please. As long as the world is addicted to oil, they and Russia will continue to be powerful forces.
Also, Israel is weak, and has seen its peak militarily, economically, and in global stature. They will have no choice but to make concessions with their neighbors.
For those portraying Isreal as the big bad puppet master is laughable. Jews don’t control the world, and it has always been the fault of apathatic society and their stupidity that allows them to elect retarded leaders or become numbskull consumers to the multinational global corporations with their wage arbitrage advantage. If anything, globalization has created carbon copies of the american way of life. No country is a superpower anymore. The desire for prosperity is, and that’s causing friction between the developed countries and those that serve them through free trade. Nuclear Iran is a given, and so is nuclear energy and electricity generation through renewables. I’m no polyanna, but it’s inevitable that swords will be turned to plowshares.
Comment on July 15, 2008 @ 8:56 am
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