“Silent spring” already setting in
I have to admit when Byron King made his "silent spring" prediction last month — a severe curtailment in air travel as early as next spring because of fuel prices, including an estimate that 70% of U.S. airports are at risk of losing commercial passenger service — I was a bit skeptical. This morning, it appears the process is well underway.
Of course there's the news that United Airlines planning to retire 20% of its mainline fleet by the end of next year (up from its original plan of 7%), and slashing routes accordingly. The details are still to be worked out but already it's been decided that Los Angeles to Hong Kong is history.
But on top of that, USA Today has pored over all the major carriers' schedules for this coming October, compared them to last October, and found the following:
- Significantly fewer flights to the major vacation/convention destinations — Orlando, Vegas, Honolulu. The tickets have been too cheap for too long to even begin to cover costs
- Fewer flights to big-city airports like Oakland and Chicago-Midway that exist in the shadow of hubs like SFO and O'Hare (and were huge growth stories just a few years ago)
- At least 50 smaller airports will see service levels drop by at least one-third
- 15 of the smallest airports are losing service completely with the shutdown of Air Midwest
The regional jets seating 50 or so passengers are especially cost-inefficient now. That means no more direct flights from Washington-Reagan to Columbus, Ohio; Boston to Norfolk, Virginia; or Cleveland to Chicago-Midway.
Kansas City, where 16 routes were added just last year, will see a 16% year-over-year reduction in service by this fall.
All told, the Air Transport Association says 60 communities that had air service last year have lost it this year, with another 37 to come by year's end.
Curiously, a couple of the cities mentioned in the article happen to have some of the highest home foreclosure rates in the country. Stockton, California will lose a third of its service by this fall. Merced, California has lost all commercial service already. Coincidence?
And this is with oil in the $125-135 range. What happens at $150 or $200 (which even perma-Pollyanna Daniel Yergin allows as a possibility now)? Silent spring, that's what.
Update: After bringing the USA Today article to Byron's attention, he replies:
With six more months of high oil prices, you will not recognize the airline system — not just in the US but across the world.This will play havoc with the world's tourism industry, the largest direct or indirect employer of people on the planet.Hawaii flights down 25%? No driving to Hawaii, eh?And pity poor Disneyworld and Universal Studios at Orlando… Sorry guys. If I have to walk to get there, I ain't coming.And what happens to "ecotourism?" This is the ultimate in not disturbing the environment…. You've got the "eco," but no tourists. So the locals will have to revert to cutting down the rain forest and eating the exotic animals to survive, right?I especially like this line from the USA Today article….Kansas City air service manager Justin Meyer says Kansas City is emblematic of changes playing out around the country. He thinks what's happening at his airport will not be the exception.
"We might be on the leading edge," he says.
Yep, the leading edge of what????If the 2-hr flight from Boston to Norfolk is now going to become an 8-hour ordeal, with a transfer through JFK or whatever….Well, we have a problem.Should you drive instead? Turn it into a long day of driving, each way…. if you can buy gas along the Interstate.So a one-day business trip becomes a three-day trip, in the best of circumstances.Or, if you don't want to drive, where is the passenger rail system to take up the slack? Whoops. No choo-choo.Wow, the opportunities for disaster are legion in all of this.
Where James Kunstler’s diatribes often comes across as simply auto-hating hyperbole, Byron King gives the impression of authoritative matter-of-factness. That is why HIS predictions of approaching doom are so disturbing.
Comment on June 4, 2008 @ 12:13 pm
[...] ‘Silent Spring’ Already Setting In addthis_url = [...]
Pingback on June 4, 2008 @ 1:40 pm
Yet another in a contining series of hits to the “American Standard of Living” which has been slowly grinding down for years virtually unnoticed but is now accelerating, breaching the quantum threshold of noticeability which is starting to “rile up the mob”. But the mob, too ignorant to know that it only has itself to blame, is unwittingly about to hasten its own demise this Fall by electing Obama. Although McCain would be no savior, just a little less bad.
Comment on June 4, 2008 @ 1:52 pm
Matt t. Wrote “breaching the quantum threshold” of what ever. “The mob” as though we are not part of your world. So “matt t”, you are not part of the “mob?” Question, are you on some other planet? If not, how are you seperate? We breath the same air, drink the same water, live on the same planet, suffer the same pains. McCain, as I have read is a hot head and a hatchet man, like the not quite Anti Christ (not popular) Bush. Do you want more suffering, if so why?
Comment on June 4, 2008 @ 5:44 pm
I hope, Eric, that you, with your Bush-bashing, aren’t contrasting him to the glorious Obama. Even tho Bush might be one of our worst Presidents ever, and certainly the worst w/in my lifetime, we’re absolutely doomed with either of the clowns at the titular heads of the mob — yeah, that’s who they cater to — parties. And hell no, I’m not part of the effin mob. I rail against it and try to educate it but it keeps heading in its lemmingness over the cliff to its destruction, voting, as it inevitably does, to “enrich” itself with other peoples money (taxes and its own children’s and grandchildren’s futures).
Comment on June 4, 2008 @ 7:50 pm
In my view, the mob that’s ruining the country is the socialist corporate-military cabal. Check the latest numbers: almost half of our tax dollars are going directly to the Pentagon. Include Homeland Security and all the other fake “security” bureaus, and its way more money than we can afford. It doesn’t matter if McCain, Obama, or my pet goat gets elected because we’ve become an empire run by thieves. What- you didn’t notice the military was ripping us all off? That’s what watching tv will do for you.
Comment on June 4, 2008 @ 10:18 pm
Maybe AmTrak can be raised from the dead with this turn of events. The worst seat on a train is better than first class on most airplanes. The price is cheaper, usually, than the lowest cost air carrier. I was going to take the train myself to visit my father over the July 4th weekend until he bought me a plane ticket. Things will just be slower, that’s all.
Comment on June 5, 2008 @ 12:02 pm
To all you who fight over who between Obama and McCain is the worse, a thought:
On many ways in the small picture, Obama is worse than McCain.
BUT in the bigger picture and anything beyond a couple of years, McCain is by far worse, which is why I will not vote for him.
McCain has usuallly only supported Bush on issues where Bush is WRONG or misguided (the war, bailouts, immigration, etc,) and he has opposed Bush where he is RIGHT, such as the federal judges (McCain helped block many good appointments, opposed Alito, and has supported people like Ruth Bader Ginsburg.)
If McCain is elected, he will have a huge-majority Democratic Congress, and true to form, WILL arrange with the Dems, as he always has in the past. The Republicans will become a meaningless / uneffective minority party in Congress, largely ignored.
BUT, when this presidency fails (and it will, with either man as president), the mob, err voters, will blame the party in the White House, seeing only the middle of the road McCain as standard bearer for the party. Republicans will be destroyed for a generation to come, unable to articulate a strong and forceful opposition stance (McCain’s positions will overshadow this).
On the other hand President Obama will bring scorn on his party when he fails, and because he will never attempt to work with the other party, allow the Republicans to adopt a strong opposition policy, which hopefully will take us back to limited government, constitutionalism, non-interventionism, etc, ALL of which were once CORE Republican positions.
The Elephant needs this cleansing, with McCain it will never happen, and to obtain it I am willing to endure 4 years of Barack “Jimmy C.” Obama. He gets my vote!
Comment on June 5, 2008 @ 5:21 pm
Interesting analysis, crhis (Sp?). I had resolved not to vote for the liberal McCain, but I had never considered voting for the socialist, racist O man. I’ll have to give it some thought….
Comment on June 5, 2008 @ 6:09 pm
McCain and Obama are sideshow barkers trying to lure you into their tent full of stunts and tricks. Meanwhile, in the area where few people wander sits Ron Paul telling you that this is all a circus put on by those whose motivations are greed and ego gratification. Yet the people walk on, oblivious to all but the sights and sounds of the “big show”.
Seems there really is a sucker born every minute…
Comment on June 5, 2008 @ 7:19 pm
Thanks for the censorship. Where did my post go?
Comment on June 6, 2008 @ 12:07 pm
According to DiverCity, George Bush is our worst president ever. Has he forgotten the absolutely appalling reign of Jimmy Carter? We were blessed with 21% inflation and interest rates, our president scheduling the White House tennis courts and personally adjusting the White House thermostats, nearly destroying our military capability, betraying the lawful government of Iran in favor of the Islamic extremists, and masterminding a botched attempt to rescue our hostages in Iran.
Comment on June 7, 2008 @ 11:46 am