On to New Hampshire
So what now for Ron Paul supporters? Herewith, some thoughts on the results of the Iowa caucuses.
Surely the most heartening thing is that the 10% Paul pulled down was rather higher than his 7.2% polling average in Iowa right before the caucuses. This bears out the theory that conventional opinion polling undersamples Paul's support because 1) the polling relies on landline telephones and 2) it focuses too much on people who've voted in previous Republican primaries, which is not where Paul is going to draw his biggest support.
Even better: Paul spanked Generalissimo Giuliani. True, Giuliani wrote off Iowa early on, but Paul got 2.5 votes for every one that Rudy got. As Josh Marshall writes at TPM, "The frontrunner of recent months is lost down in Florida shakily
repeating '9/11' under his breath like a hobo who needs a stiff drink."
The besting of Giuliani even prompted Fox's obnoxious Shepard Smith to remark that his bosses might want to reconsider their decision to exclude Paul from a New Hampshire debate this weekend.
Yes, a lot of Paul supporters were counting on a third-place finish. The fact that third went to the cadaverous Fred Thompson surprised just about everyone. But I noticed in the "crawl" on MSNBC last night that he spent the third-highest amount of money on TV spots in Iowa. (Romney and Huckabee were one and two.) Could Paul have bought a better showing by buying more TV time? Hard to say, but one hopes his staff are discussing that today.
Other bright spots: Paul won a precinct in Ames dominated by students at Iowa State. He also won Jefferson County , home to the town of Fairfield and the North American wing of the Transcendental Meditation movement, highlighted yesterday on A1 of the Wall Street Journal.
(On the other hand, given that Paul stands alone among the candidates
in being judged by the people who support him, maybe that's not such a
great thing. It's irksome to say the least that other candidates
aren't judged by the support they get from investment bankers and
defense contractors.)
So where to go from here with New Hampshire looming next Tuesday? Well, picking apart the entrance polling in Iowa, one thing stands out: Paul won a plurality of independents, bettering Napoleon McCain by six percentage points. And independent voters are an even stronger force in New Hampshire. Conventional wisdom has it that New Hampshire's independents make McCain the presumptive frontrunner among the Republicans there. But how many of those independents will be energized by McCain's remark yesterday that he'd be pleased if if U.S. troops stayed in Iraq for another 100 years?
Here's the question Paul's staff needs to answer by noon today: Do we hammer away at McCain about this for the next several days? The answer is not obvious. Yes, it could weaken McCain's support. But would that draw people to Paul… or drive them to grab a Democratic ballot and vote for Barack Obama?
Sphere: Related Content
As a resident of New Hampshire, I’m being hammered with political ads. Ron Paul’s ads have become more profession in appearance, but the content has crossed over into truly crazy.
In the one running right now, he is calling for an end to “birthright citizenship”. This is a basic premise of the United states. He also calling for complete closure of the borders (just like 9/11 Rudy).
I’m sorry to say that he sounded better back when he was running on end the war, balance the budget and get the government out of our bedrooms.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 11:50 am
I agree that something’s awry here. I’ve been an ardent Ron Paul supporter, but when I saw his dreadful performance on Meet the Press Sunday, I paused to ponder.
Although the questions were understandably hostile, Ron Paul didn’t do very well, not knowing basic info like how many troops are deployed overseas. He needs to fire his campaign staff and get people who will focus him on issues people care about. His staff should have prepped him better for the hard questions.
The economy should be coming more into focus in people’s minds, and I believe he’s the only one who has the right answers, if he just communicates them better.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
It is interesting to observe Ron Paul’s run for the Presidency completly ignored by virtually every form of media. Without the internet, quite possibly no one would be aware of his existence.
When did support for the Constitution die in America? If Ron Paul accomplishes nothing else, maybe those who have forgotten will be reminded of the Constitution’s existence and actually read a copy and digest the contents.
Sooner than later this important paper that gave the civilized world a reason to keep on striving for freedom will only be a footnote in the history of a once Great Country.
Google Dr. Paul, you might found him refreshing!
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 1:06 pm
I attented caucus last night, and it was a humdinger. I would definitely agree that his staff is not preparing him well, nor are they advertising him in a way that makes sense. Here in Iowa, I didn’t see a single TV ad for Ron - ever. Given this, I am happy, and surprised, that he did as well as he did. It was overwhelmingly obvious that his supporters are young (gen X and Y), which includes me. I have thought many times in the last month about how many candidates pander to the elderly and retired, because they are generally the one’s that actually go out and vote. Ron’s showing of support by our youth as early as CAUCUS is truly amazing and encouraging to me.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 1:27 pm
If Paul really has a shot at winning the Republican primary then his people has better start spend some of that money that he raised and put out some professional TV spots. He needs to hammer over and over again how he believes that people should be left alone by the government, we should get out of Iraq and close the Federal Reserve. Those three things will win him the presidency.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 2:32 pm
I was wondering what happened to all the donation money, why we were seeing no adds? I think he is being blocked by the media.this may be the first write in win.googl ron paul platform and get all his
views. He needs to get spending the money!!!He got 10% with little exposure. If he had run all the adds the others did he may have got 50%.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
Ron Paul is literally the only constitutional candidate in the Presidential campaign. Now people need a Boston Tea Party since both parties are into more and more taxes and more and more control. This makes the two parties different only how to get the taxes and what to spend all that tax money on. And if Ron Paul ever convinces me that he really wants to replace that onerous income tax system with something like a federal sales tax combined with a negative income tax for those poor who wish to be cushioned from paying as much national taxes as richer people do then I will really be for him. President Ronald Reagan tried for eight long years to get rid of the income tax laws which are so complex now that nobody can have even a hope of complying with all those laws. Maybe Ron Paul will find better success here.
In any case I find nothing wrong with a presidential candidate being pro-constitution. If you wonder what I mean here, in today’s society look only at NAFTA and its weird construction campaign of a huge unregulated traffic from central Mexico to Canada with Mexican drivers driving anywhere on this designated NAFTA highway and not even having to stop at the American or Canadian borders. Instead of one million more Mexicans getting into America since 1965 per year, how about five million or more coming in per year after the NAFTA “freeway” gets in place. Freeway meaning “free” for Mexicans to just come in any “way” they wish.
So keep it up Ron Paul. I will definitely vote for you since you are the only visible candidate who is also pro-American. No other presidential American candidate is dead-set against NAFTA like Ron Paul is!
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
I’m a Libertarian who dislikes Ron Paul’s candidacy for his social conservatism. Since when is the small government position for the government to outlaw abortion, for the government to restrict the importation of goods (anti-free trade), or for the government to tell businesses whom to hire (anti-liberalization of legal immigration)? I would love to see a more high-minded, truly libertarian candidate.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 4:23 pm
Pete K, nobody “performs” well on Meet the Press because none of the candidates have a teleprompter.
The questions from Russert were hostile and borderline irrelevant. When he brought up things that Paul supposedly said… like in 1988… Russert was not only vainly searching for a verbal sucker punch but there is something fundamentally wrong with Russerts philosophy in those questions.
As for his staff, who can honestly prep for questions about an alleged twenty year old comment?
By Russert saying that he wanted Paul “to be more consistent” he is basically saying that he thinks the world is a static place where the times and circumstances never change. And so people can never change their minds ever.
This is not only dishonest but impractical. Of course, this is assuming Russert was being factual with his quotes and putting it into reasonable context.
In any event, I bet if you dug back twenty years you could find some inconsistencies with Russert too.
I wouldn’t worry about Paul’s Meet the Press “performance”. Most people were watching football that day.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 4:34 pm
Most voting in the U.S. is by party. Libertarians are no different. When a candidate is in their party they will vote for him, but if an essentially identical candidate is in another party they will pick her apart and say “just not good enough”.
Ron Paul seems to be mostly by young, my experience working with my local meetup group is that there is a large range of ages (I’m not young enough to be a baby boomer). The more active “protesters” may be young, but there are retirees, independent business people, students, etc.
Ron Paul is too easy going for the high powered (obnoxious) interviewers on some of the popular programs; it is their job to be forceful and sound like they know everything. A bit different than what we are used to here in the Daily Reckoning. Ron Paul’s entire platform is based on Not telling everybody else what to do. NAFTA and other alphabet soup treaties are full of hundreds of pages of UNfree trade regulations. Following the Constitution is what EVERY elected and appointed official in the federal government has sworn to do, yet nearly none of them even give lip service to this document. They refuse to amend the constitution to make changes, they just ignore it.
I do think that the campaign staff or think tanks should provide some “meat” for Dr. Paul to put into his responses, speeches, and advertisements. Bullet points work up to a point, but we may be past that point now or at least will be real soon.
And remember: all other candidates that have any polling numbers at all are definitely anti-constitutional and pro-huge government.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 4:59 pm
I agree that NAFTA is a very unFREE trade treaty, but I suspect that much of the opposition to NAFTA comes not from this, but from people completely opposed to free trade and more open borders. I unfortunately don’t get the impression that Ron Paul is a supporter of either freer trade or liberalization of immigration. Trade and immigration restrictions are big government.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 6:04 pm
I am not a redneck just a realist
Current mood: focused
Category: focused News and Politics
President Lincoln said every citizen has the right to agree with
their government or over throw it. We have been sold out by, The big
5, the 300 on their board all unnamed thanks to our congress (Federal
Reserve privately owned money making machine),Medical big biz and our
entire political exec’s. How many are aware of the privately owned
super hiway (Mexican/Texas) That is planned from Mexico to Canada
with a port of entry in Kansas City…What’s wrong with that picture?
No my friends the clowns are up for grabs and all are “Skull and Cross
Bone” cronies same club buddies…Need to get informed and make a
change…A Big one. We are all in for a big change in life style no
matter what happens. It is time to leave greed behind and stand on
your ethics. You just might have too look real hard your leaders lack
any…I think a strong change will be necessary…Buy American not
chinaman goods…Watch what you eat and be careful…There is a lot
going on behind your backs but your safe you will be policed by
Black Water and Hal-a-Burton has all the building contracts for all the
new prisons that are being built,more now than ever in history. Ron
Paul appears radical but at least he is a Constitutionalist. I am also excited to have the youth of America to think, vote and kick some you know what!
Please all that are ill informed get hip and check out how you are being sold a bill of goods…Bless ya…Wake up
America…
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 7:08 pm
Please think and be American…If not you will be history
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 7:12 pm
@Larry Ryan - “Ron Paul’s entire platform is based on Not telling everybody else what to do.”
Yes, RP is for free choice. Unless that involves freedom of choice re: abortion, planned parenthood, contraceptives, stem cell research, same-sex marriage and who knows what else.
Also, two references above to “free trade” seem to imply that RP is against “free trade”. In truth, RP fully supports “free trade”. He also fully supports more American job losses through outsourcing.
Compare the issues:
http://tinyurl.com/32qenp
While RP has a few good ideas, much of what he espouses is pure pap. Most of the people in RP’s corner tend to be young and still idealistic. And young people don’t generally turn out to vote in high numbers, so RP has a number of strikes against him from the get-go which he is unlikely to overcome.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 7:48 pm
Correct me if I am wrong, but what is called an “end to birthright citizenship” is nothing of the kind. It is a CONTINUATION of birthright citizenship for citizens. Why should automatic citizenship apply to people who are citizens of other countries? Huh?
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 10:33 pm
Holy cow I can’t believe people didn’t appreciate Ron Paul’s MTP exposure. All I saw was Tim Russert being made out to be an ill-prepared belligerent bully. See Who is Tim Russert at Nolanchart.com for the details.
Jahfre Fire Eater
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 11:05 pm
David Laramie, I think you should reconsider a couple of your points.
Ron Paul is most certainly not going to outlaw abortion. Search for his interview on Your View on youtube, and see how he would remove all federal statutes and leave abortion as an issue for the states to decide.
I will concede that on several occasions, Ron Paul has let his personal convictions slip that he believes life begins at conceptions, and that the fetus deserves its own set of rights. But when it comes to discussing policy, he will always say that he will end Roe v Wade and let the states decide.
As for your view that Ron Paul is anti-free trade, you should listen to some of his earlier speeches where he attacks NAFTA and multilateral trade agreements. He is easily the most pro-free-trade candidate running. He admits that he would oppose the corn/ethanol subsidies that many farmers receive, but he said that hes spoken to many Iowan farmers and they understand his position and some still support him.
As for his anti-immigration policy, I agree that it isn’t the most common libertarian stance. But then again, all libertarians and economists generally recognise the dilemma between having a welfare state that provides health, education and social security, and having open borders with unlimited migration. You create a free rider situation, and the system becomes over-burdened. So you have to eliminate one or the other.
I think Ron Paul would hopefully be able to succeed and cut back significantly on welfare spending, but until that point is reached, there is a very valid economic case to cut back on migration.
Comment on January 4, 2008 @ 11:26 pm
Larry Ryan said: Ron Paul’s entire platform is based on Not telling everybody else what to do.
==========================
Yes, RP is for free choice. Unless that involves freedom of choice re: abortion, planned parenthood, contraceptives, stem cell research, same-sex marriage and who knows what else.
Also, two references above to “free trade” seem to imply that RP is against “free trade”. In truth, RP fully supports “free trade”. He also fully supports more American job losses through outsourcing.
Compare the issues:
http://www.tinyurl.com/32qenp
RP has a few good ideas, much of what he espouses is pure pap. Most of the people in RP’s corner tend to be young and still idealistic. And young people don’t generally turn out to vote in high numbers, so RP has a number of strikes against him from the get-go which he is unlikely to overcome.
@Juno - RP CAN’T outlaw abortion (thank goodness). It’s the Congress that passes the laws here. The President just gets to sign them or not. If a president could outlaw abortion, then Bush would surely have done so by now.
Comment on January 5, 2008 @ 12:21 am
@Larry Ryan - Ron Paul’s entire platform is based on Not telling everybody else what to do.
==========================
Yes, RP is for free choice. Unless that involves freedom of choice re: abortion, planned parenthood, contraceptives, stem cell research, same-sex marriage and who knows what else.
Also, two references above to “free trade” seem to imply that RP is against “free trade”. In truth, RP fully supports “free trade”. He also fully supports more American job losses through outsourcing.
Compare the issues:
www dot tinyurl.com/32qenp
RP has a few good ideas, much of what he espouses is pure pap. Most of the people in RP’s corner tend to be young and still idealistic. And young people don’t generally turn out to vote in high numbers, so RP has a number of strikes against him from the get-go which he is unlikely to overcome.
———————————
@Juno - RP CAN’T outlaw abortion (thank goodness). It’s the Congress that passes the laws here. The President just gets to sign them or not. If a president could outlaw abortion, then Bush would surely have done so by now.
Comment on January 5, 2008 @ 12:32 am
@Kara - The world needs Ron Paul. He doesn’t get a mention in the media here (Australia). I wish we had a few politicians with his courage. Go Ron Paul!
If you offer him an immigration package, RP might just take you up on it. After he washes out in the USA in the next few months, he will disappear (and rightly so), into oblivion again.
Comment on January 5, 2008 @ 12:34 am
i am not a young person, nor old, but retired, and i truely beleive it is time for our own boston tea party…..toss most of the trash out of dc. and lets give ron paul, his chance…..jimmi
Comment on January 5, 2008 @ 3:33 am
The main thing about Dr./Congressman Paul is - regardless of his chances of winning anything - is the simple fact that if, by some wild chance he does either win or makes a major change in the current debate about where to take this country it will be a START. If this chance is missed then I hope you all have something other than US$ in your savings and retirement accounts because what will be left of the dollar’s purchasing power after all the ’status quo’ politicians finish playing with it will bring, at best, Mexican Peso prices and, at worst, Japanese yen price figures to your local grocery in the foreseeable future. It’s true that the average consumer certainly doesn’t know that much about economics but that doesn’t change the fact that Keynesian economics has robbed us all blind and Dr. Paul is the ONLY candidate that will articulate that.
Even though he would not be able to do much in one or two administrations it is a start and one we most desperately need to undertake.
Comment on January 5, 2008 @ 11:12 pm
I am getting just sick and tired of the mainstream media treating Ron Paul as though he does not exist by obvious agreement. Yes, there are some exceptions, but in general, they are all Romney-Gugliani, McCain, Thompson-Huckabee on the republican side and that is where they stop. They should be blasting America with Ron and his revolutionary and SOOOO necessesary and soooo timely messeges he has for us. I began listening to Ron about five months ago and was sold immidiately. I said “Here is a man who is honest, who has the right ideas about almost everything and who really represents our only chance to take America back. Back from the bastard Neo-Cons, back from the Neo-fascists. I am a liberal democrat and I registered republican just to vote for him in the primaries. Let’s just hope that if he keeps getting bigger and bigger (like I know he will) he will survive assassination. Let’s ALL pray for Ron Paul.
Comment on January 6, 2008 @ 10:49 pm
I am now a Constitutionalist!! Those who take office and do not understand that the Bill of Right is written for the rights of the individual, not the state have absolutely no business in holding office. The Second Amendment is such a right to protect us from the likes of the enemy that is among us, those who are out to sell out this Sovereign Constitutional Republic. I do not understand why the American People what to be as the Europeans (Socialists), our forefathers left Europe to get away from the insanity of the mentality of the Europeans and their oppression of the common man! It is time that our schools start to teach the history of our past struggle to establish LIBERTY from those who are seeking an, Oligarchy be it of the socialist Democrats who are seeking a dynasty or of the Republicans who are moving to the same result at half the speed, which is no better all based on an intrusive Socialist Humanist system of entitlements into enslave!!
Comment on January 7, 2008 @ 3:15 am
I am now a Constitutionalist!! Those who take office and do not understand that the Bill of Right is written for the rights of the individual, not the state have absolutely no business in holding office. The Second Amendment is such a right to protect us from the likes of the enemy that is among us, those who are out to sell out this Sovereign Constitutional Republic. I do not understand why the American People what to be as the Europeans (Socialists), our forefathers left Europe to get away from the insanity of the mentality of the Europeans and their oppression of the common man! It is time that our schools start to teach the history of our past struggle to establish LIBERTY from those who are seeking an, Oligarchy be it of the socialist Democrats who are seeking a dynasty or of the Republicans who are moving to the same result at half the speed, which is no better all based on an intrusive Socialist Humanist system of entitlements into enslave!!
Comment on January 7, 2008 @ 3:15 am
The Iowa Republican Caucus was not a caucus, it was a Primary.
I went to the “caucus” and the only difference between it a a primary is that you couldn’t vote all day. You just wrote the name of your candidate on a piece of paper and that was it!
In the Democratic Caucus they have no secret voting. You stand in the corner they assign to your candidate, if he or she doesn’t have 15% your candidate is elimiated and the people who support other candidates try to get you to vote for their guy.
I don’t know who the right candidate is, but in my ward Huckabee, Romney & Paul would have met the 15% rule. I don’t know who the Thompson, McCain, Hunter & G’mans supporters would have gone to, but it would have been interesting.
Comment on January 7, 2008 @ 9:41 am
Excellent interview with Congressman Paul on Bill Moyers’ program. Kathleen Hall Jameson and Dennis Kucinich is there also: http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/01042008/watch2.html
Comment on January 7, 2008 @ 1:04 pm
[...] (For more on Paul’s efforts in Iowa, check out Dave’s latest entry in the Daily Reckoning blog ) [...]
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