The Daily Reckoning’s

Small countries, big impact: Dollar escape accelerates

October 5th, 2007

Qatar and Vietnam aren't exactly marquee players on the world financial stage.  But if this is any indication, they're harbingers of what's to come for the U.S. dollar:

Announcements on Thursday from the Qatari and Vietnamese governments that they are rapidly divesting in dollar denominated securities will not come as good news to the US government. Overseas investors hold half of America’s $4,400bn of marketable government debt, up from a third in 2001 according to the US Treasury department.

Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani said on US TV that the government-backed $50bn Qatari Investment Authority (QIA) now had less than 40 per cent of its investments in dollars, down from a high two years ago of 99 per cent.

Given that the Emirate’s oil and gas revenue is in dollars, the latest troubles in the US economy have accelerated the need to diversify investments into non-dollar markets. Currencies such as the Euro, the British Pound and the Swiss Frank, are all looking far more stable as investments for the QIA, said Sheikh Hamad.

Such was the Qatari PM's concern about the sliding dollar, that he even said an oil price of $125 a barrel would not be unreasonable.

Ouch.  Coming on the heels of Kuwait's decision to decouple its currency from the dollar, and Saudi Arabia's refusal to cut interest rates in tandem with the Fed last month… the notion of the six Gulf Cooperation Council nations forming a single currency pegged to the dollar is looking not only improbable, but impossible.

And what about Vietnam?  This too looks like an omen:

On Thursday, the State Bank of Vietnam quietly let slip it would be ending its dollar purchase schemes, which it has been using to hold down the Vietnamese currency. Although it only has middling dollar reserves of $40bn, Vietnam is widely regarded as a barometer for economic sentiment among other, bigger, regional dollar sinks like China, Taiwan, Korea or Singapore. Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, told the Telegraph:

"Vietnam is a relatively small country but it is symptomatic of Asia. The entire region is seeing inflation move up as a result of mercantilist policies of holding down their currencies with 'dirty floats', which are designed to help their export sectors. They need to change monetary policy. "

Would the last country to exit the dollar please turn out the lights?

Sphere: Related Content

5 Comments »

  1. Dave P. wrote,

    Oh great…Now how is our magnificantly corrupt government going to finance its fiscal shortcomings? Certainly not on the backs of the Ivy League Elite…

    Comment on October 5, 2007 @ 3:29 pm

  2. Escape From the US Dollar wrote,

    [...] following article in The Daily Reckoning details the recent moves to diversify away from the Dollar by Vietnam and [...]

    Pingback on October 5, 2007 @ 4:55 pm

  3. wrote,

    If the US dollar falls faster than foreign central bankers can get rid of them, then they have a problem too, especially if their economy depend on exports. This situation is like:

    …an individual owning the bank money. If he owes the bank a million dollars, he is in trouble. But if he owes the bank a billion dollars, the bank is in trouble—if he goes bankrupt, a large portion of bank’s loan portfolio will be wiped out, rendering the bank insolvent. The US owes the rest of the world so much money that they cannot afford to let the US go ‘bankrupt.’ But the rest of the world knows that sooner or later, the US will go ‘bankrupt.’ (Of course, a country cannot be bankrupt in the same way as individuals do because there is always the option to print money to remain solvent. But the end result will be just as horrible—hyperinflation.) What can be done?

    Comment on October 7, 2007 @ 11:48 pm

  4. Will wrote,

    Just read what happened in Germany circa 1922-23.

    The money got printed on one side, and a wheelbarrow full of money left outside a shop was stolen…the thief left the money…

    You have been warned.

    W.

    Comment on October 9, 2007 @ 10:28 am

  5. Stunning Jobs Report, A Worrisome Dow Indicator, More Bad News for Subprime and the Greenback, and More! | 5 Min. Forecast wrote,

    [...] the last country to exit the dollar please turn out the lights?” kindly asks The Desidooru Saloon’s Dave Gonigam [...]

    Pingback on May 4, 2009 @ 8:48 pm

Leave a comment

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Powered by WordPress