The new crisis era?
Time to head further down the rabbit hole of whether America has entered a new crisis era — or whether it's yet to begin.
We left off this discussion yesterday by noting that baby boomers may be headed toward a much more modest retirement than they were expecting — a theme Bill Bonner visited this week in the DR, in terms startlingly reminiscent of a book written ten years ago called The Fourth Turning.
The book's premise is that Anglo-American society goes through predictable cycles every 80 years or so, every four generations, brought about by predictable shifts in societal attitudes. Sure enough, the American Revolution was followed roughly 80 years later by the Civil War, followed roughly 80 years later by the Depression and World War II, followed roughly 80 years later by…
By what?
The authors' considerable fan base (and the authors have written several related studies of the passing of generations and their zeitgeists) has been speculating on discussion boards all over the Internet for years about whether we're now in a new crisis era. Did it begin with 9/11? Or have the past few years been a continuation of the "culture wars" that began in the 80s, and the real crisis is yet to hit?
One of the keys to understanding the question is understanding that each event that brings on a new crisis is followed by an event the authors call a "regneracy" — when people come to the realization that "things are really different now." So while the authors say the Revolutionary period began with the Boston Tea Party, it wasn't until the Declaration two and a half years later that the reality of a break from England hit full force. Likewise, Lincoln's election precipitated a crisis, but only with Ft. Sumter did the full scale of the crisis become clear. The crash of 1929 marked the start of yet another crisis, but it was only with FDR's ambitious Hundred Days that people realized things were changing forever.
So… did 9/11 begin the new crisis period? And if so, what constitutes its regeneracy? I've noted elsewhere that whatever "unity" the country felt after 9/11 had clearly dissipated by April 2004. That month brought the killings of the four American contractors and the resulting first battle for Fallujah… and it also brought us the pictures from Abu Ghraib. Iraq, and American involvement in the Middle East, would be a much mroe lengthy and messy affair than most people had counted on.
But as more time passes, I don't think a crisis came in September 2001, or reached its regeneracy in 2004. Rather the past few years have been more or less a continuation of the 80s culture wars, 90s impeachment, 2000 disputed election, etc. Much bitterness, much divisiveness… but life has more or less continued to bump along.
I suspect the new crisis has yet to arrive. And I have no idea what form it will take. Geopolitical? Financial? A combination?
We shall see.
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Nope, no crisis yet. Some believe they see storm clouds forming far off, others see nothing but sunshine.
But it’s clear to me that the very fabric of society has become worn and tattered. The social glue that holds everything together is deteriorating. Stagnant wages, falling home values, increasing food and energy prices all mixed together with a completely corrupt corporate-political power structure bent on bankrupting the middle caste can only mean that even the slightest wind will overwhelm whatever it is that holds society together.
When that happens - the point of crisis - we will see just how far the social deterioration has progressed. Yes, I’m talking about massive disorder, food riots, race wars - that sort of thing.
As far as transfering one’s wealth from dollars to precious metals: It is a prudent move in a near-crisis climate, but one must keep in mind that gold cannot be eaten.
Comment on September 20, 2007 @ 6:20 pm
what we’re watching here is the classic ‘twilight of empire’ with all the expected trappings. i’d suggest that there’s a direct, negative correlation between the ‘denial’ factor so prevelant among the Banksters, Real Estate “BROKErs”, etc. ands the actual severity of the ‘crash’ when it is no longer deniable. the tensions are quite evident, at least to one who doesn’t ‘go out much’ to the big box stores, etc.; people are more irratible, drive more erratically, are more short-tempered and angry…there’s a sense of foreboding amongst the lumpeninvestors because, on a subconcious level even they realize that not only is ’something wrong’, but that it’s ‘unfixable’…at least without going through an incredible amount of pain and ‘adjustment’ on a societal level. What hasn’t been fully considered yet is the level of responsibility the REST of the world will hold the US to, in this mess: and we did, in fact, create it: when the Brits, Frogs, and Aussies [to name only a few...and ignoring the Chinese 'elephant in the living room'] are NOT going to be pleased when they lose their homes. Prediction: they [and the rest of the World...] is ‘gonna come looking’ for ‘whoever’s responsible’ for this…ain’t gonna be pretty, locally, internationally, or nationally. Inevitable, and NEEDS TO HAPPEN…these Fed ‘delays’ only exacerbate the underlying situation, and guarantee it’ll be that much worse.
Comment on September 20, 2007 @ 7:30 pm
the elliot wave theory calls for a severe depression every 70 years…the last depression ended in 1939 which makes 2008 seventy years later…It looks like history will repeat itself…
Comment on September 20, 2007 @ 8:59 pm
I agree with rhone - the worst is yet to come. Interestingly, the Canadian Dollar is now at par with the US Dollar, having a dramatic negative effect on our manufacturers’ ability to export to the US. However, I wonder if, rather than the Canadian dollar rising against the US$, in fact the US$ has “fallen” to par with the Canadian $. If this is true, then the value of assets in the US - for example, homes financed with subprime mortgages, are worth much, much less than it would appear. With more subprimes to come up for renewal and inevitably many more foreclosures, I can’t help but agree with rhone….the end is nigh! Maybe, sooner than we all expected, the economic power is shifting to the eastern part of the globe. I wonder what will become of us.
Comment on September 20, 2007 @ 9:02 pm
I think fuel will get impossible to buy, the transportation system will fail, resulting in empty grocery stores. This will result in food
riots, robbery & theft. Hungry people tend to not be friendly with folks with food. I feel that conditions will be next to interable.
However the electd officials who are causing this meltdown aparently have bunkers stocked with supplies [to hide in].
Comment on September 21, 2007 @ 1:15 am
Karl Marx seems to have gotten it right when he wrote “(Democracy) will only survive until it’s citizens discover they can vote themselves money from the treasury; then they will bankrupt it.” Oy Vay!
Comment on September 21, 2007 @ 9:04 am
Dont worry theres still time to get ready for the bad times ahead….
Comment on September 22, 2007 @ 9:32 am
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